NCAA Brackets Anyone?
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Is anyone following the NCAA Basketball tourney? Did anyone participate in the yearly ritual of making a bracket?
I made a bracket this year, but tried a new method. Instead of just listening to the talking heads or going on intuition, I followed a statistical strategy of picking a high number of teams that are undervalued by the general public, especially in later rounds(according to ELO rating simulations). Interestingly enough, the best value for a champion is Duke. While maligned by the announcer types for their lack of athleticism, ELO estimates they have a 7.5% chance of winning, but only 3.7% picked them as champions. In comparison, UNC, the best team, has an estimated 18% chance to win, but was picked by almost 30% to win it all. So, this method ends up creating a bracket that has an unusually high chance to be either really good or really bad.
So far, my bracket is off to a bad start(Clemson let me down), but here is who I picked
Midwest
Round 1 winners - Lousiville, Ohio State, Utah, Wake Forest, West VA, Kansans, So. Cal, Michigan State
Round 2 winners - Louisville, Wake Forest, West VA, Michigan State
Round 3 winners - Lousiville, West VA
Region winner - Louisville(this is my most conservative region)
West
Round 1 winners - UConn, BYU, Purdue, Washington, Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Memphis
Round 2 winners - Uconn, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis
Round 3 winners - Purdue, Memphis
Region winner - Memphis(also a bit conservative)
East
Round 1 winners - Pitt, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Xavier, UCLA, Villanova, Texas, Duke
Round 2 winners - Pitt, Wisconsin, UCLA, Duke
Round 3 winners - Pitt, Duke
Region winner - Duke
Southeast
Round 1 Winners - UNC, Butler, Illinois, Gonzaga, AZ State, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma
Round 2 winners - UNC, Gonzaga, AZ State, Clemson
Round 3 winners - Gonzaga, Clemson
Region Winner - Gonzaga
Final Four
Memphis over Louisville
Gonzaga over Duke(as a Maryland fan, I can't in good conscience pick Duke to win)
Champion - Gonzaga
I made a bracket this year, but tried a new method. Instead of just listening to the talking heads or going on intuition, I followed a statistical strategy of picking a high number of teams that are undervalued by the general public, especially in later rounds(according to ELO rating simulations). Interestingly enough, the best value for a champion is Duke. While maligned by the announcer types for their lack of athleticism, ELO estimates they have a 7.5% chance of winning, but only 3.7% picked them as champions. In comparison, UNC, the best team, has an estimated 18% chance to win, but was picked by almost 30% to win it all. So, this method ends up creating a bracket that has an unusually high chance to be either really good or really bad.
So far, my bracket is off to a bad start(Clemson let me down), but here is who I picked
Midwest
Round 1 winners - Lousiville, Ohio State, Utah, Wake Forest, West VA, Kansans, So. Cal, Michigan State
Round 2 winners - Louisville, Wake Forest, West VA, Michigan State
Round 3 winners - Lousiville, West VA
Region winner - Louisville(this is my most conservative region)
West
Round 1 winners - UConn, BYU, Purdue, Washington, Utah State, Missouri, Maryland, Memphis
Round 2 winners - Uconn, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis
Round 3 winners - Purdue, Memphis
Region winner - Memphis(also a bit conservative)
East
Round 1 winners - Pitt, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Xavier, UCLA, Villanova, Texas, Duke
Round 2 winners - Pitt, Wisconsin, UCLA, Duke
Round 3 winners - Pitt, Duke
Region winner - Duke
Southeast
Round 1 Winners - UNC, Butler, Illinois, Gonzaga, AZ State, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma
Round 2 winners - UNC, Gonzaga, AZ State, Clemson
Round 3 winners - Gonzaga, Clemson
Region Winner - Gonzaga
Final Four
Memphis over Louisville
Gonzaga over Duke(as a Maryland fan, I can't in good conscience pick Duke to win)
Champion - Gonzaga