Are we assuming that the person who's hard working has little talent in the concerning field, and that the person who's naturally talented doesn't work at all?
It's situational, but for the greater part, I think talent will beat hard work. Take for example, someone with eidetic memory taking an exam against someone who doesn't have eidetic memory and instead studied six hours a day for the past week for the exam. The person with the eidetic memory will get a 100% because it's just how he was programmed, and the person who worked his ass off is going to make a mistake/forget something simply because his brain didn't have the mental capabilities to do what someone with eidetic memory can.
Sports is also a good example. In basketball, if two players have the same skill set, work as hard as you can, but if you're 5'7, you're not gonna beat someone who's 6'2.
I might have gone off topic; I didn't read the other posts and don't know what the definition of talent was for this discussion. I just took it as not having to put in a significant amount of time to be proficient at a given field. If I was way off, I'm sorry >.<