Stenta wrote...
Before Gidaffi, you had two groups of people: People who support him and the rebels.
But the rebels are actually split, there are many, many clans.
So the problem comes is how do you split that land for the different clans?
Who takes over?
Chances are, there won't be democracy. Just another civil war in Africa. Then just another dictator.
What will most likely happen is very different from what western countries want to happen.
I agree with you that another dictator is extremely likely. One of the strongest reasons why is because of Lybia's economy which is based on oil.
Basically, dictators gain power by seizing the economy of the nation. If a dictator attempts to seize control of an economy based on something like textile mills or agriculture (i guess but maybe not), the citizens can simply disinvest and/or move their businesses elsewhere. In thies picture of an industrialized economy, the government depends on their citizens, giving the people of the country a credible "exit threat"(but I won't get into political games).
Lybia's economy is of course not industrialized, and instead relies on the exportation of natural resources. Being "in the ground" means that the industry cannot be moved elsewhere. You cannot extract oil in Lybia when you are not in Lybia. The citizens cannot disinvest in the economy and take their business elsewhere. Therefore, the government of a nation such as Lybia relies on its citizens a whole lot less, allowing the government to do essentially whatever it wants. In other words, whatever the dictator wants.