Fiery_penguin_of_doom wrote...
A tangled web of alliances would draw everybody into conflict to some degree
1. Israel attacks Iran which draws aggression from other Middle Eastern states like Palestine.
1. Given Iran-Israel relations and Iran's support of anti-Israel groups it's entirely possible Israel would attack Iran but not on a huge scale. I think 2 is more likely though.
2. Iran retaliates against Israel and also deploys mines into the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt oil trading. This would cause severe damage to the world economy.
2. Snowball effect. Some one decides to attack both sides and make it look like the other did it or attack one side and set off a knee-jerk reaction in the other. Maybe even Somali pirates hi-jacking an Iranian oil tanker or something
3. Initially, the U.S supports Israel by funding, weapons or actual manpower.
3. Of course. I'll will always start with "Hey want some weapons?". Meanwhile there will be US pushed UN sanctions against Iran's mines. Its possible that big players like China and Russia may abstain in a vote (hint hint).
4. Eventually the U.S will be drawn into a 3rd war to clear the Strait of Hormuz and clear out the mines and to "stop Iran's Nukes".
4. Something like Tonkin occurs to say the mines are an act of war.
5. China (and possibly Russia) sells arms to Iran in exchange for oil or access to natural gas reserves. The Chinese Government uses Iran as another Vietnam to act as a proxy war between themselves and the U.S.
5. Members of SCO condone US actions in Hormuz while preparing for Korea-esque war to block western expansion and protect (claim) resources in Iran. Its very likely the EU and most everyone in NATO gets roped along into this with the US. India is an interesting piece here since it has no shortage of manpower and is in a very good location (proximity by air, ignoring mountains) no matter which side it ends up on.
6. The quagmire in the middle east eventually draws support for the U.S from European Union member states for fear of nuclear weapons being used.
6. If Israel formally declares war on Iran I don't think a land battle is going to happen in Iran. As I said in 2, there's bunch of countries surrounding Israel that may use Iran as an excuse to attack Israel itself. Israel could find itself out powered and involvement by the US would likely turn up in Israel in terms of the army but in the Persian Gulf for naval "monitoring" of Iran. Either way a land battle in somewhere between Iran and Israel plays out and fear of nuclear weapons grows (exponentially)
7. Due to increase western presence in the middle east China and or Russia are eventually forced to be more direct with their support eventually moving troops to aid Iran in order to protect it's oil/natural gas fields.
7. See my 5. This is about as far as I see things going without something big happening. Going from your 7 to 8 seems to require a big event not just a "we need a stalemate breaker" kinda thing.
8. This build up could possibly lead China and or Russia to invade Japan and attack the U.S military bases in Japan, specifically the Naval base. This would cripple the U.S presence in the Pacific and effectively defeating South Korea and Japan. It is also possible China would attack Taiwan to "reclaim" it.
8. Thinking about it for a bit though makes me think of somewhere close to Japan. The big Cold War loose end of the Korean War (which still hasn't officially ended) I think will be the "stalemate breaker". North Korea decides to attack South Korea. US and Japan come to support South Korea. China and Russia supports North Korea and possibly attack Japan. Keep in mind North Korea has no ties to the SCO.
9. The U.S ships based in and around Japan would either be forced back or destroyed. This would hinder the U.S war effort in the pacific forcing south Korea, Taiwan and Japan to fend for themselves.
9. Giant Pacific Naval War. Southeast Asian countries get involved. (Australia has probably joined long before this from western alliances).
10. The conflict in Japan could lead Korea (China's ally/puppet state) to attack South Korea due to the United States being tied up with an exponential situation in the Middle East.
I don't have a 10. At this point there may be a EU/Russia front that turns up if it hasn't already. Africa might actually not get roped in by alliances for the most part. South American nation's will be involved. Everything I wrote thus far has the assumption that there is no pre-emptive strike. Japan didn't do a great job of one in Pearl Harbor (see result at Midway) but it is very likely if there will be a big China vs US pacific war that's how it will start.
In addition, its very possible the US mainland is attacked repeatedly. That is something that I assumed would not happen in the 9 points I listed above because its quite a logistical challenge. On the other hand the US seems to have bases everywhere so it feels much more likely to see attacks on mainland China, Russia, etc. That said though, at least one major North American city should be attacked. How many depends on the course of the war itself. Cities with factories, military bases, natural resources, and at least one population centre will go first. It's unlikely that the war will end in a peace treaty if a major nation's homeland is attacked. I would expect a surrender to mark the end of this war.
