Lelouch24 wrote...
[color=#2e1a6b]I don't claim to know the cause, nor do I need to
Well if you're saying black people are likely to commit crimes based on a statistic that says there's a correlation between black people and committing crimes, then you ARE proposing a cause. You're saying, "Oh, he's black, which means it's probable he committed a crime." When in reality it could be something completely different. Perhaps it's a socio-economic thing, so it's not that they're black that has anything to do with it, but that they're poor, or come from a poor place. So you would in fact be inaccurate to say, "Black people are more likely to commit crimes" instead you should say, "People in poor areas are more likely to commit crimes."
When you claim that black people are more likely to commit crimes based on a statistic, whether you acknowledge it or not you're purporting that being black is the problem, at the very least implicitly, and that'd be a fallacy.
If there's a haunted house that has 10,000 people enter each year, and 5,000 of those people die while inside, I can enter it and correctly assume that I have a 50% chance of dying.
Not necessarily. Because what if the cause of this is people who are overly scared and thusly have heart complications because of an expectation of 'spookiness'. If you went in without heart problems or without being convinced you'll see anything then you could easily say it's actually FAR more likely that NOTHING will happen to you.
I have no idea what causes all these deaths, but despite this, I know that half the people that enter the house will die. As a result, I'm afraid of this house and won't enter it.
You don't know that half the people that enter it WILL die. You know that people do die when they enter it. Again, if you don't know the cause, you can't say that anyone who goes in will or will not die, even if the statistics were 70 or 80% of people.
If there's a race that commits 6 X more murders than my own race, I can correctly assume that this race is 6 X more likely to commit a murder.
No, you cannot. You can only conclude that there is something about their circumstances that cause them to commit crimes.
I have no idea what causes this race to commit more crimes than other races, but despite this, I know that this race commits 6 X more murders than my own race. As a result, I'm a little concerned to be around them at first
You haven't presented a reason to be afraid of someone of that race though through a statistical correlation. Again, you're simply falling prey to the fallacy. You can't say, "These people are more likely to do X." because of statistical correlation. You can't. Listen to me when I say this: YOU CAN'T DO THAT. THAT IS A LOGICAL FALLACY.
There are other factors involved in all these statistics. You know what has a statistically strong correlation? Young children who sleep with the light on and developing myopia later in life. Quinn GE, Shin CH, Maguire MG, Stone RA (May 1999). "Myopia and ambient lighting at night". Nature 399 (6732): 113–4. doi:10.1038/20094. PMID 10335839 However this doesn't mean that sleeping with a light on at youth causes myopia, or that you can predict that doing so will lead into it. http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/nitelite.htm
[color=#2e1a6b]All this shows is that the statistics from 1999 were inaccurate.[/quote]
No, it doesn't. The statistics were correct. The problem was that the statistics were meant to imply that night lights caused myopia, when in fact there was NOTHING to suggest this, aside from high statistical correlation.