Greece is going down, where too?

[align=justify][color=green][font=verdana]The current ideas bouncing around this topic are very extravagant. The idea that the whole world will go down the drain is quite farfetched - the reason the Greeks are in so much trouble is because they spent more than they earned. Simple. With countries increasingly turning to Conservative governments due to this problem, many countries are relatively okay - in the grand scale of things, that is.

Look at Germany, for instance. Sure, they're not doing as well as they usually do, but they still have a fairly stable economy with a very reliable exports market. I mean, if they have enough money to throw at Greece, they can't be doing too bad, right? Not even to mention the Far East, who have hardly been affected by the global crisis themselves. Even the UK is shaping up not too badly either.

In short, if Greece reject the bail-out, they're fools.

Your statement possesses both a truth and an error.
Indeed, the Greeks spent more than they earned, there is no questioning of that.

But other countries are assuredly turning to conservative governments, such as the French who have elected a socialist president and government. But we mustn't forget that the only thing that keeps them alive is their vivid economy that is barely recovering from the crisis, and that this economy depends on other countries.

If Greece falls, it will have consequences. It might have a domino effect, much alike Nixon's metaphor, but with economies.

If the Greeks drag down only one EU country, the risk of the whole system collapsing will be enormous. Because you mustn't forget that the other countries have also been spending more than they've earned.




Germany, as said above, is dependent on its exports to survive. So are most of the "biggun's" of europe. If no one buys their products, they will crumble.

Reliable exports? Sure, the Nordics are reliable. Other major EU countries are also reliable, as well as the US. China is reliable. Japan is reliable.

But if you have a major importer that crumbles, say Italy for example. Thats a share of your earnings that you'll never see again. And you'll miss it direly.

I see your point that we envision drastic settings and consequences. But that's the point. Greece will fall, there is no doubt about it. It would take a miracle to get up after two years of struggle. And if Greece falls...the dice will have to thrown.

I voted that one of the extremest parties will take over. This is simply because history has an odd trend of repeating itself. When countries start having extreme issues economically extreme views look more and more pleasing. Some examples of where this has been true in the past are: the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia and the ascent of fascism in Italy and Germany. I am sure that there are other examples in history which I am not familiar with.

Well, the bail out has been accepted[color=red]EDIT: this link is old and irrelevant, an error on my part, sorry for the inconvenience, you can still check it out though., but the things is, it doesn't mean that Greece is saved. There will be a ten year lapse of time at least for its economy to breath again, and with difficulty.

There is no telling what might happen in those years of stagnation.

Uh dude, are you serious? That bailout you linked is from February 2012.

Greece and the other EU countries haven't agreed to a new bailout.

The only options the Greeks have out of the mess they have made is bailouts with measures to address the structural issues like corruption, tax evasion and spending or leaving the euro and letting the currency address the problems, by massively devaluing the drachma and putting the Greek standard of living in the toilet

Your far-fetched military nazi country is an absolutely retarded assumption. Greece is only 2.5% of the EU, them exiting the euro isn't going to make it collapse. I thought we were talking about Greece, not the novel Brave New World.

First of all, I am deeply sorry for the misinformation that I provided through the Bailout link, I hadn't realized it wsa from back in Frebruary.
My deepest apologies.

Secondly, assuredly, we aren't talking about the novel Brave New World, we are talking about the future of a falling country.
I base my assumptions that Greece will be governed by an extremist party on the precedents of many countries in the world who, in the process of facing serious social or economical changes, have had their government transformed and their politics led another direction by an extremist party.

I do not say I am right, as the title of this thread is a question; if I had the answer, I wouldn't ask other people.

What I say is based on facts, Greece is falling, Greece is part of the EU, its fall will affect the economy, and other EU countries are in difficulty as well, but all my predictions are extrapolated, maybe sometimes exageratedly because of my doubts and fears.
A Brave New World wasn't just some dreamt up scheme. It was an extrapolation of what the author thought he saw in our society at the time, pushed to the extreme in the foreseable future.
I suggest my vision, with arguments to support it. Some are fragile, others stronger, none have no weakness. But I'm not saying I'm right. Just that I am worried, and that Greece is falling.

Please understand I do not seek to impose my view, but to share it, and if possible, to enlarge it.
Please help me and others to do so, if you have the will and time.

Thank you.
And once a again I am deeply sorry for the mistake I have made.

hmm this seems interesting, I don't think a military regime is possible but I will ask some one that IS in the know of such things next time I get the chance to talk to him/her.

Thank you for your interest, looking forward to your next post.

Hello hello, adding some material (verified this time) to the discussion, follow this link to an article from the Spiegel, a German news paper.

Euro Collapse

I think this is just the begining of a European economic collapse. First Greece, then Italy, Spain ect. The ramifications are going to spread all over the world. Remember the four G's Guns, Gold, Gas, and Goods start stockpiling now because the U.S. has invested alot in the E U banks and monitary funds and it's going to make it to our shores. Depressing isn't it?

"greece is already a mess from a security perspective. the public discontent that will result from implementation of austerity measures could push it over the edge and create security problems that would require the government to move towards martial law to control."

Hmm, yeah, it is true that a total breakdown of society could be undergone if the austerity measures continue to become harsher. And I don't see a scenario where they don't.

Wellh, personal POV this time.
On the rate of how Euro is collapsing, I won't be looking back once I finish up with my Master's degree in IT and aim for the job market in Eastern Asia. (Japan or China mostly. Been studying both languages individually for a while)

Angelina Merkel brought up some idea not too long ago.. Making Europe literally a union of nations, like how U.S is a union of states. With integrated political structure and so forth. I find this idea very VERY far fetched, since the ex-Comiterm nations are still fairly underdeveloped, when compared to the western ones. Few of them still having some issues with basic Human Rights (Gypsies is one example. Probably one of the most disliked human groups in Europe at this current time).

Where did she come with this idea. I don't know. But it for sure doesn't seem likely to happen.. This recession hasn't shown any signs of stopping, even after the loan € sent to the problem nations. What brings me to another point.

How can one be sure that, let's say the one of the loan payouts for Greece, actually was used on to bring up the economy.. Corruption in the bankers seems to be a fairly common problem (and just thought, one of the problem causes to this recession in the first place), so few people might take few cuts from these payouts for themselves..

i don't think anarchy is possible for more than a year or so. EU will go there first as to "calm the situation" if it fails, it may as well be the end of the place. Worse possible scenario it will be a province of a country that supposedly "helped" them. Modern invasions I suppose.

I gotta say it's pretty surprising. And here I thought my country was at the boonies.

Somalia?

Thats a good scenario you've got there, but the thing is, its a "postive outcome". The Euro countries will preoccupy themselves with their own problems before helping Greece out, and it is not assured that they'll get out of their murky waters either.

As I've said many, many times, Spain is the nest one on the list of falling countries, closely followed by Portugal. So if Greece falls, all the attention will be on them, as to stop the dominos from falling down.

Again, this is a worst case scenario, but it is a real option.

The only negative stuff i can think of atm is the domino effect but then as you said, the world will try to stop it. Then again, worse would be wars breaching countries to claim what needs to be claimed in wars.

I finally get that anime called C-The Money and the possibility of control. I'm not that smart but now I get that country disappearing on the map and people on other countries would just go on with their lives like nothing happened.

That is the most probable outcome if the other euro countries survive the domino effect.

Then again, that means we will have become a cruel, heartless race, but I really don't see much of an option. Just setting a foot in a crumbled country when your economy is at its worse would most likely result in you being destroyed as well.

Also, thanks for the anime, its instructive and quite nice.